With all the new fall shows debuting now or in the near future, here are some predictions on what will last and what will be cancelled considering the premise, cast and network.
Cancelled before Christmas
Selfie - edit, cancelled
A to Z, finishing first half season but cancelled
Manhattan Love Stor, edit, cancelled basically immediately
Marry Me
There's a chance one of the four can succeed in the post-HIMYM era, trying to fill that void. A to Z appears to be to HIMYM what Flash Forward was to Lost, where it attempts to address one complaint about a hit show (lack of resolution), but fails to account for any of the elements that made successful. Selfie has a chance to become an extremely dated-I-can't-believe-2014-was-like-that in just a few years.
While romantic comedies, none of which are likely to be as good as You're the Worst, populate the 2014 landscape, noticeably absent are the Friends clones. Happy Endings, Perfect Couples, and other that haven't lasted. I guess they are giving up on those.
Bad Judge, finishing first half season but cancelled
Bad Santa was great. Bad Teacher was not good. I don't see Bad Judge bucking the trend.
State of Affairs
No.
Cancelled After Christmas, Before Season Finale
Madam Secretary, edit, given a surprising full season pick up
Commander-in-Chief without the firepower. A tall woman attains a new position in the federal government, unexpectedly, and is going to do things her way, against the grain. I see this having a following but ultimately a hiatus or a timeslot change will keep the viewership down. There's too much on cable for this to gain a following.
Finishing Season One, Cancelled Before Two
Utopia - edit whoops, cancelled only 2 months into a full year season
Reality imports are always a good bet. However on the surface this one seems to be more about collaboration than conflict. In that, I mean that collaboration is the goal for the utopian society and there will be conflict on the way, rather than making conflict/choosing a winner the ultimate goal. The success may lie in the casting because while on some reality shows the reckless or unstable or unreasonable or incompetent make for good television, it may simply be frustrating to watch a group operate at a low capacity. It would be much more interesting to watch two competent groups compete for control and influence rather than have a few competents try to stave off a few village idiots.
Bringing it back may rely on how expensive this was to produce. But they won't bring it back if it has only middling success.
Gracepoint
Fox is moving more to a cable model in terms of ordering shows. It makes sense that Fox, the youngest and most cable-y of the networks would be the first to do this, especially with a only two hour primetime schedule each night. That said, Gracepoint is a closed end ten episode series where detectives investigate a murder. It appears to be in the vein of True Detective, Twin Peaks, The Following, The Killing, etc. It's also taking a page from the FX shows Fargo and American Horror Story with what appears to be an anthology format.
This show could return, perhaps in a different form. Perhaps with a different cast. Being only ten episodes and closed ended means it will be easy to catch up on if buzz around the show let's us know it's something we should spend our time on. Regardless of quality, the series will finish its run this fall.
Returning in Fall 2015
We have two shows that speak to the CBS brand and two that speak to ABC's brand. All will succeed.
Scorpion, picked up to fill full first season (currently #2 new show)
Big Bang, Hawaii Five O, A Team, blah blah blah. I expect a lot of magical computer hacking by this crew, followed by hitting the enhance button on the computer, all with one unattainably hot girl hanging around the group. Six years on CBS for this show.
NCIS: New Orleans, picked up to fill full first season (currently #1 new show)
They wouldn't have ordered this if their research didn't show they could have success with it. CCH Pounder is a great actress, so it's only sad that she'll be on here because it means she's less likely to be on something else like The Shield or Sons of Anarchy for a while. Four seasons on CBS.
How to Get Away With Murder, picked up to fill full first season
Grey's Anatomy is still on television. Scandal is popular enough to be in the zeitgeist. Murder looks like it even has a few aspects of Damages that will appeal to some typical cable viewers. I could see this lasting a few years and then surprising a lot of those cable viewers as something they like to watch in spades when it rains.
Blackish, edit, picked up to fill full first season
ABC's current hallmark are minority casts and family sitcoms. Blackish fits easily into a night with The Middle, The Goldbergs and Modern Family meaning that even if Blackish doesn't succeed, it can fill out the line up and make Wednesday a 20 years later version of TGIF. Or as Andy Bernard would say: "Man, TGI Wednesday. Gonna go home, get my beer on, get my LOST on".
But in all sincerity it seems like a pretty funny show and you have to trust the brainchild of Larry Wilmore.
Gotham, edit, ordered episodes to fill full first season
The number one seed coming into the Fall. Most likely to top the ratings and critical success. Expectations are high. Which could be its biggest weakness
Wild Card
Mulaney could wind up running for ten years or ten episodes. I honestly have nothing to add on predicting its success, but nothing would particularly surprise me.
edit, on the brink of cancellation, reducing episodes
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