This is going to be a lot of Oberyn fandom so just know that going into it
What were the bookies setting the line at when Tyrion demanded a trial by combat? It was probably well predicted Cersei would choose the Mountain to stand for her. Even with Tyrion's champion unnamed, the line probably opened at about 10-15:1, with some chance that Bronn or a maimed Jaime may take up against Clegane. But when they didn't immediately volunteer as tribute, the line must have gone up above 20, and then even higher when for a hot minute it seemed like Tyrion was going to have to kill the Mountain himself. Which would probably mean the bookmakers would just refund everyone's bets as there was no way to make any money. Or bettors would have to wager such an enormous amount of money to get any return that they would just be better off buying bonds from the Iron Bank.
But when Oberyn volunteers, I imagine it comes back down to about 10:1 or maybe a little higher, with some big bettors wagering enough after studying Oberyn to move the line significantly. I bet it came all the way down to 5:1 and then back up again by a few coppers at the last minute.
I've mentioned before that in 5,000 pages of Ice and Fire, this is my favorite scene and the one I most looked forward to. It's a powerful scene that makes someone like the scene when their favorite character bites it. A while back I mentioned the reason Pedro Pascal was perfect to play Oberyn is because of his big scene as a skilled but arrogant pugilist in Lights Out. Originally spoiler tagged, the story is that he dominates a fight, but draws it out longer than it should have been and loses on a knockout from a bolo punch. In trial by combat, Oberyn still tries to play to the crowd while extracting the confession and lets his guard down just enough.
You raped her. You murdered her. You killed her children.
His refrain is the best since Princess Bride.
Back to the bettors. The guys who waited for Oberyn to be named as combatant then got the bets in before the line moved to much are the ones who did some quick analysis and realized this is like one of those games in March Madness where a superior team loses to a lower seed because of match ups. Clegane would probably take on and beat any sort of classic Westeros knight. In an earlier episode Jaime mentioned only a few knights in Westeros could take him on. One was Ned Stark, which we saw in practice. One was probably the Mountain. Which means there's only a handful of guys you could give a chance in Seven Hells against him. The Hound? Loras? That's about it and they aren't super inclined to help out Tyrion. Plus the Hound would then be taken into custody and executed. Or given his own trial. Again.
Oberyn matches up well with the Mountain. After seeing him hang in Kings Landing, trading barbs with Lannisters and lazing about the capital, it's apparent he's perhaps the only character who can fight as well as he plays the game. While Clegane is "quick for someone his size" as Bronn pointed out, Oberyn has some Wushu Master skill(*) going on which just puts him in another plane of existence(**). The reach of the spear, which just happens to be Oberyn's best weapon, takes away the brute strength of the Mountain as he cannot get to the Viper. Plus, there's the intangibles. Robb described Clegan as a mad dog without a strategic bone in his body. Despite pregaming with wine rather than Gatorade, it's clear that Oberyn put a lot of thought into what his approach was going to be, while the Moutain planned to hack away. Plus it didn't seem like he was practicing very hard, executing a bunch of untrained prisoners when Cersei came to see him, rather than developing a new skill or honing an existing one. It's like beating the computer with offsides turned off. And Oberyn has both the underdog and revenge thing going for him. The Upset Special?
(*) This is all awesome but 1:40 specifically looks like it inspired Pascal's performance.
(**) It appears he did these stunts himself in an empty apartment. Which brings to mind Peter Quinn, the other giant badass of the television universe, and television MVP two years ago.
The reactions in the crowd are great. The Lannister clan has to remain regal and poised, but each give just enough of an expression betray their rooting interests, except for maybe Tywin (*). Cersei has to still act queenly despite her open hatred of Tyrion. But Jaime's delight at seeing exactly what Oberyn is capable of is incredibly well done. He's thinking, hey this guy has a chance then what do you know he's about to win.
* Tywin has shown contempt for the gods before, chastising Cersei for praying as a child, so you have to love his dismissal of the Grand Maester's long introduction of each of the seven gods. It probably didn't help that he clearly finds the GM annoying as well, shown in this deleted Season Three scene.
Similar to the Purple Wedding, the scene follows the desciption in Storm of Swords with great precision. The only surprising thing was how fast it all happened. I figured this would be the last scene of the episode, taking part all without a cut to another scene. It was more of a surprise how thoroughly Oberyn dominated the fight until the last seconds. And he does it with ease, either taunting the Mountain or smiling the entire time. Which has to be hard enough just while completing those moves, but with all that going on it's even more impressive. Again all until the rage takes over.
With pieces of his head covering a diameter of about six feet, Oberyn is dead, and the performance of guest star Pedro Pascal is finished. But I think he lived up to the billing of the series most awesome character. He was able to play it cool, lustful (with the girls and the guys), vengeful toward the Lanniseters, strategic in his positioning, passively disrespectful to Tywin, actively challengeing Tywin, sharp and skeptical in the trial, cocky in a good way, athletic and full of rage...all until his pride before the fall.
Back to Tywin...is there anyone else in the Seven Kingdoms who can, in front of everyone, and with veracity and anger, point to Tywin Lannister, the richest, most powerful man in Westeros, Hand to three Kings, crusher of rebellions and and defacto ruler in chief, and call him a murderer? Oberyn can. Well, could.
Is there another character in Game of Thrones, on all of television that has this range, as well as an actor to execute it?
There was a high potential for failure with such high expectations but Guest Star in a Drama Series has to go to this guy, but my guess is it will go to the Bert Cooper swan song.
Coppers and Silvers
- Jorah's spying for the small council in Season One gets the win for earliest "previously"
- Moat Cailin is added to the credits
- Sansa has caught on to the game. She highlighted to Lysa just how bad of a liar she was, but now she's been able to convince the lords of the Vale that Lysa killed herself and the Littlefinger is not so bad a guy.
- If 2013 was won by Stan's fringe jacket on Mad Men then 2014 will be won by Sansa the Black Swan toward the end of this episode. Like A Boss.
- Littlefinger lauds Ned and badmouths Tywin, conveniently leaving out the part where he ensured Ned's capture and Joffrey's seizure of the Iron Throne
- Because of the POV of the books, little is scene from the smallfolk. Or slaves. We get some perspective of regular people in Mole's Town and former slaves in Dany's army. They all just want to guess the song the wench is burping and as Jorah said "The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."
- And so the Wildlings butcher them. Bummer.
- Selmy takes the Ned Stark approach of telling his rival how he's going to use the information he has against them.
- Tyyyyywin! You're blowing up my spot!
- Roose Bolton's wardenship of the North has sure kept him busy. He gets the title and the honor of doing Tywin's dirty work, just as they will be expected to be the first and possibly only line of defense against whatevers coming from Beyond the Wall.
- "If you're found in Mereen after break of day, I'll have your head thrown into Slaver's Bay"
- If you want to sound uber threatening and authoritative, maybe don't make your threats rhyme?
- Is Cersei ever not drinking?
- Arya has just lost it. Of Course! her one living relative is now dead.
- I'd kill Joffrey with a chicken bone if I had to.
- Oberyn believes in himself. That's putting it mildly
- The rapport between Tyrion and Jaime is great. They are always the one the other is talking to when in distress.
- Also turns out the maesters a bit more like priests than even the septons.
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